Is it naive to think that a technology - or how we use a technology would always stay the same? My short answer is yes.
I've decided to chime in on the Wired / boingboing / mashable / etc . . . debate regarding the web and it's deceased status. I believe that the statistics and facts within the major stories (wired.com / boingboing.net etc.) are accurate; however their conclusions are miles apart and self serving.
Jumping right to my point, the web is not dead, our habits as users are simply changing. Yes, peer to peer communication is gaining in popularity. Video is streaming to all endpoints. You can't look around the corner without bumping into an 'app'. And, yes, browsers, e-mail and FTP are still widely in use (and declining).
Our habits as users are moving to everything that is 'cool' (OK, cool is dead). Video, social media, direct apps and mobile use are just a few of the ways that we are using the web in new and different ways.
Even though my opinion is interesting, a couple of statistics always help prove a point:
• Total internet traffic rose from 1 exabyte to 7 exabytes between 2005 and 2010 *Cisco / Boingboing.net
• Global IP traffic grew 45 percent during 2009 to reach an annual run rate of 176 exabytes per year or 15 exabytes per month (and is expected to reach 64 exabytes per month by 2014) *Cisco
• The sum of all forms of video (TV, video on demand, Internet, and P2P) will continue to exceed 91 percent of global consumer traffic by 2014 *Cisco
It should also be noted that the statistics I have quoted come from the same sources that were used in the 'Web is dead' article from wired.com.
So what is the real message or "news" here? There are a couple of stories:
• The web is not dead, users habits are just changing
• Statistics can be twisted to prove almost any point
• Self serving headlines sometimes work - as there has been an explosion of stories on the topic since the wired.com article